Study Links Fossil Fuels to Intensified El Niño Events
A recent study published in Science has found that the burning of fossil fuels is significantly amplifying the strength and variability of El Niño events, which are naturally occurring climate phenomena. The research, led by Julia Cole from the University of Michigan, highlights a bidirectional supercharging effect between global warming and El Niño cycles.
El Niño events, which occur every two to seven years, involve the warming of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and have widespread impacts on global weather patterns. The current developing El Niño, informally dubbed a “Godzilla” event, is expected to peak later this year and could push 50 million people into acute hunger by the end of next year.
The study indicates that El Niño variability has increased by approximately 37% compared to pre-industrial times, particularly since 1982. This conclusion is based on coral proxy analysis from the Galápagos Islands, which provides a 1,000-year record of El Niño intensity. Recent super El Niños, such as those in 1998, 2016, and 2024, have coincided with record global temperatures, suggesting a long-term intensification trend.
Julia Cole stated that the findings suggest a mutual enhancement between El Niño events and global warming, while co-author Samantha Stevenson-Karl from UC Santa Barbara noted that large El Niño events may become more frequent. Andrew Dessler from Texas A&M described the study as a crucial validation of climate model projections, emphasizing the link between fossil-fuel-driven climate change and the severity of upcoming El Niño impacts.
These findings are supported by external sources, including an Associated Press report quoting Cole on the parallel rise in El Niño strength and global temperatures due to human activities. Scientific American also corroborates the findings, highlighting fossilized coral evidence of modern El Niño events being significantly stronger due to climate change.