Mbappé Leads Messi in World Cup 2026 Golden Boot Odds Ahead of Semifinals

By Cameron Tate

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its semifinals, Kylian Mbappé is slightly favored over Lionel Messi in the race for the Golden Boot. Both players are tied with eight goals each, but Mbappé leads with three assists, giving him the current tiebreaker advantage, according to FIFA's official standings.

Betting odds from FanDuel place Mbappé as the favorite with odds of –140, while Messi follows closely at +145. Other contenders, such as Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, are significantly behind with odds of +1200 and +2500, respectively.

Despite the market odds favoring Mbappé, a model from Squawka Signal assigns Messi a 50.5% probability of winning the Golden Boot, compared to Mbappé's 28.5%. This discrepancy suggests that Mbappé may be considered "overpriced" relative to the model's projections.

The semifinals are scheduled for July 14 and 15, with the final set for July 19, where the Golden Boot winner will be determined.