Latin America's Oil Exporters Benefit from Iran Conflict
Latin American oil exporters, notably Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, are reaping financial benefits from increased production and elevated oil prices due to the ongoing conflict in Iran. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that these three countries will contribute half of the global crude oil production growth in 2026, amounting to 0.4 million barrels per day.
Brazil's oil production reached over 4.0 million barrels per day in late 2025 and is expected to maintain this level through 2026, supported by new floating production storage and offloading units at the Buzios field. Guyana's production has surged from approximately 75,000 barrels per day in 2020 to over 900,000 barrels per day, with further increases anticipated as the Uaru project comes online. Argentina's output, primarily from the Vaca Muerta shale, is projected to rise from 670,000 barrels per day in 2024 to 810,000 barrels per day in 2026.
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) reports that the Iran conflict, which began in February 2026, has led to a 25% increase in oil prices due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This price hike has resulted in a slightly positive trade balance impact for Latin America and the Caribbean, with South America experiencing a 0.13 percentage point GDP boost in 2026. The region's net energy exporters benefit through increased export revenues and higher government revenues from elevated prices.