Goldman Sachs Warns of Potential $120 Oil Prices Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruptions
Goldman Sachs analysts have indicated that Brent crude oil prices could rise above $120 per barrel if ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue into 2027. The investment bank's analysis, led by Daan Struyven, highlights the critical impact of the waterway on global oil supply, with potential price surges if Persian Gulf output does not recover by December.
In a recent research note, Goldman Sachs outlined that while their base-case scenario anticipates a de-escalation leading to Brent prices of $80 per barrel in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027, a prolonged disruption could see prices escalate significantly. The bank's projections suggest that severe disruptions could lead to Brent trading at over $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026.
Earlier forecasts from March 2026 by Goldman Sachs had estimated price increases ranging from $1 to $15 per barrel, depending on the severity and duration of the disruptions. These estimates accounted for various scenarios, including full or partial closures of the Strait and the use of spare pipeline capacity and strategic petroleum reserves.