Climate Change Escalates Global Landslide Risks
Climate change is significantly elevating the risk of landslides worldwide, as extreme weather events become more frequent and intense. According to research published in Communications Earth & Environment, the global road network at high or very high landslide risk could increase by approximately 30.6% by 2100 under a high-emission scenario. Currently, 8.3% of global road land area faces such risks, particularly in high-income countries.
In Southern California, a study from Nature Climate Change indicates that the frequency of Hurricane-Hilary-scale rainfall events could nearly double by 2100, raising landslide risks across the region. This increase disproportionately affects low-income households, exacerbating existing social inequities.
Post-wildfire landscapes are also more prone to landslides. The USGS Landslide Hazards Program reports that areas affected by wildfires, such as the site of the 2023 Montecito debris flows, show heightened susceptibility to slope failures. Over 10,000 landslides were mapped in a 160 km² area following these fires.
Despite these projections, a U.S. EPA study analyzing data from 2000 to 2019 found no statistically significant changes in landslide frequency and intensity, highlighting the episodic and localized nature of such events. However, emerging hotspots suggest evolving patterns linked to climate change.