Canadian Wildfires Could Cost Over $2 Trillion This Century, Study Finds
A new study from Simon Fraser University suggests that the economic impact of climate change-driven wildfires in Canada could exceed $2.1 trillion by the end of the 21st century. The study, published in Environmental Research, models a scenario where global temperatures rise by 3–4°C.
According to the study, annual wildfire-related costs could reach $43 billion by the century's end. These projections include direct costs such as wildfire suppression, lost timber yield, and reduced nature-based recreation, as well as broader societal costs like the impact of carbon emissions on crops, sea-level rise damages, and human health.
The study's lead author, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, emphasized that if global warming is limited to 2°C or less, the costs would remain similar to those in recent decades. However, under higher warming scenarios, the costs increase dramatically. The study's estimates are considered conservative, as they do not account for health impacts, evacuations, infrastructure losses, or economic disruptions within Canada.
Additional data from Statistics Canada indicates that wildfires in mid-2025 threatened economic activity equivalent to about 0.125% of Canada's GDP, with regions like northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan seeing up to 26.3% and 24.4% of their regional GDP at risk, respectively.
The OECD's Economic Survey of Canada 2025 notes that wildfire management costs have increased by CA$150 million per decade since the 1970s, reaching approximately CA$800 million to CA$1.4 billion annually in the past decade. The report suggests that suppression spending in provinces such as Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario may need to double in the latter half of the century to maintain current response capacities.