Brazil's Presidential Runoff Puts Amazon's Future at Risk

By David Okafor

Brazil's presidential runoff on October 25, 2026, between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro could significantly impact the Amazon rainforest. Lula's administration has achieved historic reductions in deforestation, but a shift in power could reverse these gains.

Under Lula, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell to its lowest level since records began, with 3,335 km² lost between August 2025 and July 2026, a 41.8% decrease from the previous period. This achievement follows a broader trend of declining deforestation, with annual losses dropping from 11,594 km² in 2022 to 5,731 km² in 2025.

However, the right-leaning Liberal Party's recent gains in Congress, where it now holds the largest caucus, could bolster extractive industry interests. Analysts warn that a Bolsonaro victory might lead to the dismantling of environmental protections and increased pressure on Indigenous lands.

The president's power to appoint leadership at IBAMA and influence enforcement budgets means that policy reversals could occur swiftly, potentially undermining years of environmental progress.