Africa Prepares for Potentially Devastating 'Super' El Niño
Africa is ramping up its preparations for a 'Super' El Niño, expected to have significant climatic impacts across the continent later this year. The African Union Commission, alongside meteorologists and climate experts, has consolidated forecasts to produce a unified outlook for the July–October 2026 season, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to mitigate potential economic and environmental damage.
Scientific projections indicate a 90% probability of a 'Super' El Niño forming, likely peaking between November 2026 and February 2027. This event could be the strongest since 1950, prompting urgent calls for coordinated action across the continent.
Region-specific forecasts predict varied impacts: East Africa, including countries like Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya, may experience severe flooding due to above-average precipitation, leading to displacement and disease outbreaks. Meanwhile, southern regions such as Angola and Zimbabwe face the risk of drought and delayed rainy seasons, threatening agricultural productivity and pastoral livelihoods.
The Greater Horn of Africa is particularly vulnerable, with forecasts showing up to an 80% likelihood of below-normal rainfall, exacerbating existing drought conditions in areas like central Ethiopia and northern Uganda.